Master of 500 Hats

Successful Developer Platforms Have 3 Things: Features, Users, Money.

[note: this post was originally a comment on TechCrunch post summarizing Max Levchin's panel on web platforms from the Web 2.0 Summit, with Facebook, MySpace, Google, & Microsoft.  i decided since my comment went past 3 paragraphs, i should probably expand it on my own blog...]

this is gross over-generalization/simplification, but platforms are successful if/when they have:
1) code libraries / feature abstraction -- so developers don't have to build everything
2) customer distribution -- so developers don't have to market everything
3) monetization -- so developers don't have to implement/collect payment

it's arguable there are many other platform issues & requirements -- security, scalability, standards, metrics, user authentication & support, etc.  however these 3 primary aspects are what make platforms tick.  sometimes platforms can be successful if only 1 or 2 of the items above are working, altho if you want a dominant platform it's helpful to have all 3.

Here are my incredibly unscientific and from-the-gut "Platform Bookmaker Odds" on Dominant Future Platforms:

Facebook (3:1) has arguably been the platform leader in the past year or so, at least in terms of innovation & inspiration.  They've done an excellent job with the first 2 points, but largely failed in terms of monetization to date.  And because their distribution incentives were creating a negative user experience backlash, they decided to dial back distribution & revise User Profiles in ways that dramatically limited the # of platform app winners (but there are still winners).  Also, until FB has payments in place, and has setup aligned monetization with their developer community, they are likely to be reluctant to really open the floodgates on distribution.  If/when they have payments rolled out, expect them to spin up distribution again, probably through 3rd-party news feed stories.  And people still underestimate how much power they can bring to bear if Facebook Connect starts working.  People were too hyped up on Facebook when they launched (maybe me too), but now they're too pessimistic.  Facebook will start kicking ass once they get Connect & Payments figured out... tho might be mid-2009 before that starts happening.  But the DNA of this company is all about Platforms & Developers... i'd be very surprised if they don't do very well over the long-run.

Microsoft (5:1) altho the platform Godfather historically, is far from having a functional web platform, primarily because they have not figured out a web distribution story for 3rd parties (nor a monetization story either, tho that's fixable quickly via acquisition or partnership).  while they have tremendous reach via Windows and the Web, they have not translated that into consumer internet platform distribution opportunities.  they also do not have a payments story (good reason to buy eBay/PayPal or Amazon, but don't hold your breath).  Still, given Microsoft's historical dominance & belief in platforms & developers, i'd expect them to get there eventually... but it may take years.  expect them to be a player, but i'd guess it may take a lot of acquisitions & luck for them to maintain the app dominance they had in the 90's.  They'll be around, but they're not leading the way right now. (update: Ballmer sez MSFT is planning to copy Apple's app store... not a bad idea.  again, like the GOOG, MSFT can KILL if they simply enable 3rd-party access to their amazing distribution & reach).

Google (2:1) certainly has the cojones & brainpower to do platforms, and they kick ass on features, but up until last year they were pretty piss-poor at developer evangelism.  However, you could argue Google's biggest "platform" is really just search (& indirectly SEO/SEM, and also analytics).   while they are a juggernaut in search, and their potential distribution is phenomenal, their initial platform efforts left a good bit to be desired.  But like Microsoft, Google certainly understands the benefits of a developer / platform strategy and there is good reason to be optimistic for the future.  OpenSocial has a long way to go, AppEngine is still fairly new, but Google is now headed in the right direction... and if Google ever *does* open up properties like YouTube and Gmail and the main search platform to developers, the sky's the limit.  Google has no lack of distribution, but again like MSFT it's mostly direct, not on behalf of 3rd-party developers.  Google also has Checkout for monetization when they get their shit together.  Expect them to put a lot of horsepower behind catching up to Facebook's surprising early platform leadership, and steamrolling ahead to a dominant position.  They're playing a bit of catchup, but they are certainly the odds-on favorite horse to win the long-term race.

MySpace (7:1) does seem to be following cautiously in Facebook's footsteps, and given their existing footprint in music & entertainment (not to mention their already significant spam issues with user communication), it seems appropriate for them to move slowly.  But they have shown progress over time, and if/when they implement payments they will likely attract a good deal of developer attention (and in fact, since FB dialed down distribution, MySpace has already drawn some of that audience in).  While i expect MySpace to primarily focus on their successful entertainment verticals in Music, Movies, Television, and perhaps an emerging presence in Games, they will likely do quite well due to their excellent distribution & monetization opportunities in those areas.  While everyone thinks Facebook is pulling ahead of MySpace, in fact MySpace is a much safer vertical play in entertainment.  They may only be successful in selected areas, but they will likely do quite well there.

not present on Max's panel / not mentioned in TC article or my analysis above: Amazon (2:1), Apple (3:1), SalesForce (4:1), YouTube (4:1), Yahoo (4:1), Mozilla (7:1), LinkedIn (10:1), Wordpress / Automattic (10:1), Twitter (10:1), FriendFeed (12:1), multiple other blogging platforms / social networks (15:1) Typepad, Blogger, Hi5, Bebo, Friendster, Orkut, other international players.  I'm sure i'm forgetting a lot here, but this piece wasn't meant to be completely comprehensive.

A few brief thumbnails on the other main contenders:

Amazon is the defacto platform leader in 3rd-party infrastructure.  They have yet to tie this back into the consumer Amazon platform in interesting ways -- largely AWS is completely disparate from Amazon.com -- but if they ever do, then watch out.  Amazon has been the quiet leader in personalization & e-commerce for the past 10 years.  If they decide to platform-ize that expertise, they will absolutely continue to be a very valuable company.  Only question is -- why in the hell haven't they been bought out by Google or Microsoft ?!?  They'd be SO much more valuable in either of those 2 larger players empires.  Answer?  Jeff Bezos isn't done having fun yet.  If he ever tires of that job, and decides to put the company up on the block, expect the mother of all battles by MSFT & GOOG to acquire that jewel.

Apple is kicking ass, but remains to be seen if they can parlay initial success in music & mobile into larger app platform success.  They don't have a terrific platform history, but the last 5-7 years they've done a great job on distribution, and recently on features & monetization.  Assuming they don't decide to screw the developer community into oblivion at some point -- always possible with a mercenary like Jobs -- then Apple will likely remain a force in consumer communication & entertainment platforms.

I'm not an expert on SalesForce, but they seem to be the leading player for hosted business platforms.  I'll refrain from much analysis since i don't follow them closely.  Yahoo continues to choke on both feet planted firmly next to its own tonsils, but they still do some great work on platforms & developer communities.  If only they can show a little business leadership & stability, they'll be around.  YouTube is a surprise here, and i list them separate from Google because they really are such a separately dominant player in video.  And like Facebook, the DNA of YouTube is all about developers.  They haven't really needed to do much since they are so far ahead of everyone else (in video), but i'm bullish they will figure out the monetization and as they do make it available to all of their developer community.  Mozilla has platform potential, if only due to an amazing ability to grab browser market share from MSFT.  LinkedIn has been a relatively plodding platform, but due to their audience specialization & demographics, they will be highly attractive to developers if they ever decide to open up more significantly (& revenue potential there is off the charts).  Of all the blogging platforms, Wordpress / Automattic is the most exciting & interesting... more to be revealed there, particularly if they continue on their recent micro-acquisition strategy.  Twitter is rocking these days, and i expect Ev & Biz & team to roll out some cool platforms stuff in 2009.  FriendFeed has so much potential it's not even funny, but i'd be surprised if they don't get swallowed back up by the GOOG before long.  Several other social networks have also embraced platform strategies, and may have modest success within selected geographies & demographics.

my apologies for any significant oversights or inaccuracies on the above.  and the "odds-on" stuff is really more for entertainment than serious discussion -- most all of these companies will be successful to some extent, tho they have widely-varying attention to platform issues. i'll try to make a few updates to this piece as my more-informed readers upbraid & correct me in the comments.

for more discussion of Platform dynamics, see Max Levchin's excellent masterpiece here (max: if you're reading this, please write more often!) : Developer Incentives in Social Networking Platforms

Andrew Chen also has many terrific articles on platform dynamics too numerous too count... i simply recommend you read as many articles on his blog as you can: http://andrewchenblog.com 

for praise / criticism of Facebook platform, and a few others on business models for social networks, integrating email & e-commerce platforms with social networking, etc see my previous posts here:

• Facebook's Problem isn't Privacy, It's Monetization
• Web 3.0 isn't the Semantic Web, it's Hailstorm 2.0
• Business Models for Social Networks: Monetizing Social Capital & the Long Tail of Cool
• Memo to GOOG, MSFT, YHOO, AOL: How to Turn 500M email logins into Facebook Platform (& a crapload of revenue)

Facebook Inbox 666: Number of The Zuck

Facebook Inbox 666: Number of The Zuck
Originally uploaded by davemc500hats

uh-oh... either Damien or Mark Zuckerberg has Possessed my Inbox.

pretty sure Merlin Mann has something to say about this.

Facebook Big Pimpin': Using Social Networks & Platforms to Drive Content & App Distribution

This is an initial brainstorm presentation i put together on Facebook fundamentals (social network, social platform, FB Connect, FB Payments), for a discussion with some folks in entertainment media about social networks & platforms.  Much of it is high-level & speculative, however it might be useful for other folks to think about.

Facebook Big Pimping: Using Social Networks & Platforms to Drive Content & App Distribution

view presentation (tags: social network platform distribution facebook)

(Note: any guesstimates i make about Facebook Connect and/or Facebook Payments are highly subjective, and likely to be very, very wrong... so please don't assume i know what the hell i'm talking about here.  Caveat Emptor.)

Second Age of Aquarius: Facebook Connect + Facebook Payments (= Social Sign-on + Viral E-Commerce)

so i went to a Rock Concert Facebook F8 yesterday, and i had a good time. 

yeah sure, the hype machine was in overdrive & some folks were a little underwhelmed (tho others more excited than usual).  Jerry didn't show up, but Zuck was a lot more relaxed than last year, and even cracked a few funny jokes.  he ain't no Steve Jobs yet, but overall it was a good set.  and a few of us not only rocked but grokked the Happy Happy Joy Joy Meaning of It All.

all Love aside tho, we're just beginning the Second Age of Aquarius.

here are 3 Important Signs to recognize on your way to Enlightenment:

Sign #1:

Facebook Connect isn't Single Sign-on, it's Social Sign-on.

Facebook Connect is barely arrived, but it's going to change how people think about the usefulness of social networks, and will have a substantial increase on their value in the marketplace.  the FB Connect integrations demo'd yesterday by Digg, SixApart, & CitySearch (wtf? how much did they pay to bump Yelp off stage?) were impressive and very smooth.  I believe most people who saw those demos now recognize the potential for using Facebook as a single sign-on option on many consumer websites. (note: i'm not downplaying the significance of competing alternatives MySpace Data Availability, Google Friend Connect, or even OpenID [tho Dick isn't sure]; they're also relevant.  currently Facebook Connect appears to be the lead horse in the race... but watch closely).

while the topic has been much discussed over the past few months (years even), it seems only a few people really understand the implications of using a social network as single sign-on service.  historically, Microsoft tried to create Passport (aka Hailstorm) as a broad use single sign-on for other non-Microsoft services, but failed rather miserably... in my opinion, as much due to poor UI design as lack of 3rd-party incentive.  the strategy had merit, but the tactics & implementation sucked.  after a blue-streak chair-throwing incident, Marc Lucovsky is now at Google trying one more time.

these days there *are* functional multi-service sign-ons available from Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, & others, but they haven't been widely adopted by many third parties (yet).  OpenID has potential as well, but i don't see it getting traction without major vendor support... and i don't mean just lip service, but also coordinated developer evangelism communication as well.

now the Grand Game is Again Afoot, only this time not just at Microsoft, Google, & Yahoo, but also Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn & other social networks.  Why?  Because while major platform services have ~200M-500M account logins, the primary social networks are also approaching critical mass in #s of users (critical = >100M, roughly speaking).  More importantly social networks don't just have lots of user profile data, they also have functional Friend Lists (with pictures); their users are now socialized and familiar with invitation behavior, and this enables easy viral distribution of content & applications. thus, it's not Single Sign-on, it's Social Sign-on.

Sign #2:

Facebook Payments is Coming... Ready for Social Commerce?

The shoe that *didn't* drop yesterday at F8 was of course Facebook Payments.  It's a poorly-kept secret  Facebook is working hard on their own payment system, and many of us were hoping they would launch it at F8, but alas that rumor was squashed earlier in the week.  Rightly so, payment infrastructure (and fraud prevention that goes along with it) is not something you shove out the door without a lot of testing,  if it's not quite ready for primetime, i'd just as soon they wait a bit longer.  i'd still expect they will ship before end of the year, but i won't hold my breath.

In any case, once they DO ship it's likely there will be considerable interest by the developer community to integrate payments into a number of apps, in the hopes someone will figure out how to make money.  if that scales up, then there is tremendous value in combining an integrated payment service with several hundred million user logins -- each with a hundred or so friends they can share / refer / inform about their favorite new clothes, music, or other commercial goods & services.  want to get a discount on that new iPhone?  invite a friend to buy one too, and hey maybe you both get 20% off.  in other words, this isn't just another e-commerce payment system, it's about Making E-Commerce Viral. 

Yeah, i know group buying has been tried before, but this time you've got an audience of millions already used to social networks, news feeds, online shopping, & lifestyle transparency... now they're so used to online voyeurism, it's just a matter of time before someone cracks the nut on this one.

Sign #3:

Search Monetization (Future Intent) gives way to Social Commerce (Past Discovery)

Ok i admit, this one is purely speculative.  But it's fun to put on the aluminum foil hat every now & then, and think about how Facebook could beat Google.  It certainly won't happen overnight, and Google is already trying to co-opt Facebook's social mojo, but maybe it's not as crazy as you think.  Up at Foo Camp a few weeks ago, Danny Sullivan moderated a debate between Tim O'Reilly and Mike Arrington about how & why Microsoft/Yahoo should keep trying to fight Google (or not).  While there was a lot of argument on approach, almost no one thought Google could be beaten head-to-head in Search.  In fact the big question was whether there was ANY way to make a dent in Google's dominance in Search at all. 

well i'm here to tell you: there is a way. 

close your eyes for a second, and i will explain.  (Let Go Luke... Use the Force!)

Let's think about how most people buy stuff in the real world.  Do they do a lot of research?  well, sometimes.  Do they search around & look for the best price, the best deal?  yeah, sometimes they do that too.  Do they typically make the decision all by themselves?  hmmm no, most people don't just depend on their own efforts... they talk to friends & family, and they rely heavily on word of mouth & opinion.  most purchases are social activity: markets are conversations; commerce is communication.

And about all that research... do you really think people LIKE to do that stuff?  Aren't a lot of people really just very lazy?  wouldn't they cop out on all that search & research if they could just see what other people were doing, and copy their behavior?  yeah, that's more like it.  i tell ya... most times i ain't the hard-working little pig that builds his house out of bricks.  i'm the lazy-ass little pig that just wants to find out what the next guy is doing, do the same damn thing, & get back to watching YouTube and knock back a cold one.

Now let's translate the behavioral observations above into the online world.

What if instead of having to do all the hard work online by myself, i could just see what my friends (or famous celebrities) are doing?  What if i could just use my social network & related information services to help me DISCOVER what other people have already bought?  Then i could just forget about all that research, and cut to the chase.  Imagine if the dominant way to make money on the web changed from using search engines to monetize future intent, and instead transitioned to using news feeds and social networks to monetize discovery & distribution of past transactional behavior? 

hmmm...  that might create a whole new way for someone to make a Mint out of social networks.

[cue Pink Floyd's "Money" & cash register sounds... then fade to black]

Facebook's Yishan Wong to Kottke, TechCrunch, et al: "You Wouldn't know a Walled Garden if it bit you in your F8."

my former PayPal colleague Yishan Wong, now an ass-kicking, name-taking engineer at Facebook, lays the "Walled Garden" rebuttal smackdown on Kottke, Arrington, et al.   you go, Yishan... you just go.

look for more news on the Facebook front coming in a few weeks at the 2008 Facebook F8 conference in SF on July 23rd (register before July 7 to save some bucks).  rumor has it Dave Morin will be debuting Facebook Friend (oops) Connect at the event.  no word on whether Mr. Morin will be ripping any big air on stage, but we know he has the cojones if needed.

i'd also bet even money F8 will featured the long-awaited debut of Facebook Payments, whereby Facebook will finally begin addressing the monetization issue that has been dogging them for the past half-year. (btw, interesting listserve here apparently run by Jared Morgenstern... hi Jared ;)

happy 4th of July to everyone, and enjoy the long weekend... second half of 2008 begins Monday. gonna be a very interesting summer, i think.

update #1: Doh! guess Yishan's post is only visible to his facebook friends... okay, so maybe semi-permeable garden, perhaps.  for the record, Yishan notes in the comments this is likely a bug, not intentional.  might want to fix that.

update #2: so Kottke obviously came across this [now a bit ironic] post, and noted that it's also not viewable.  to which, i was going to write a 'yeah, guess it seems a little silly' comment... except that Kottke's blog doesn't appear to accept comments (or am i missing something?) except on this property where nobody ever comments. tho his TOU seems to suggest he did previously, and earlier posts do have comments... if i'm clueless, maybe someone who knows the story there can fill me in.  still, i wonder if people who live in semi-permeable blogs should throw stones at invisible smackdowns.

update #2b: thanks to Jon Bell who informed me that occasionally Kottke's posts are comment-enabled... but not that one.

update #3: no question, mr. kottke has a pretty damn huge audience.  getting one of my larger traffic days ever from his off-day link to my piddly-ass little piece of shit i call a blog.  holy crap.

"Liquid Conversations" @ Supernova: Rise of the Comment Mashup DJ Artist & The Share Pimp

Our recent Liquid Conversations panel at Supernova covered some interesting territory about how blog posts & particularly comments are becoming more distributed, shared semi-privately among friends & followers.

in particular, i think there's a really interesting conversation (heh) that's becoming more important around the role of what i call the Comment DJ Mashup Artist, or the Share Pimp -- that is, not the person who creates original content, but rather the person who promotes / shares / pimps it out to other audiences, whether that be via Digg, Delicious, Reddit, Mixx, Facebook News Feed, FriendFeed, Flickr, YouTube, Twitter, SlideShare, embeds (see below), etc etc. 

i think this is a really important function, one that you often see performed by someone like a Robert Scoble or a top Digger (or occasionally yours truly).  we may not be original, but we amplify signal like nobody's business.  this particular audience is one that website owners & content creators should be paying more attention to... they may even be more important than the person who creates.

here is the TechCrunch writeup & another by Elliott NG / CNreviews:

• FriendFeed and The Future Of Distributed Conversations (TechCrunch)
• Supernova 2008: Three insights about distributed conversations from FriendFeed, CoComment, Seesmic (CNreviews)

and here's a followup video interview Nick Douglas did with me after the panel:

Link: sevenload.com

a few other photos:

Bret Taylor (FriendFeed) and Dave Sifry (Offbeat Guides, ex-Technorati)
(CC) Elliott Ng, UpTake Travel Search

Loic Le Meur (Seesmic), Dave McClure (500 Hats)
(CC) Elliott Ng, UpTake Travel Search.

Viral Marketing & Advertising Strategies for Social Networks (Kevin Barenblat, Context)

I invited Kevin Barenblat from Context Optional to lead a workshop on viral marketing & advertising strategies for social networks at Graphing Social Patterns East, and boy did he ever deliver.

Here is his presentation, one of the best i've ever seen on this topic:

| View | Upload your own

thanks Kevin!

Graphing Social Patterns panel on News Feeds: I Can Haz Privacy?

The GSP Feed Panel
Originally uploaded by duncandavidson

Chris Messina & David Recordon share a moment on privacy, at the Graphing Social Patterns East panel on The NEED for FEEDs, along with Dave Morin (Facebook), Adam Nash (LinkedIn), and Kevin Chou (Watercooler).

this panel was WAAAYY out of control, but lots of fun ;)

Graphing Social Patterns East: Day 1 Video Bumpers

Several folks attending the Graphing Social Patterns East 2008 conference asked if we could post links to the video bumpers between speaker / session changes... here is the list of links from Day 1:

• Richter Scales: Another Bubble
• Blue (SF) / Fruit Guys, of the Loom
• Muppet Bloopers (Rickroll)
• Facebook Song (Rhett & Link)
• Flight of the Conchords / MuthaFlippin
• Muppets / Manamana
• Cansei der Sexy (CSS) / Off the Hook
• Feist 1234
• The Lion Sleeps Tonight
• Sony Bravia (SF) / Jose Gonzalez "Heartbeats"
• Hifana Wamono
• Facebook Course @ Stanford (Fall 2007)
• Facebook News Network (News Feed)
• Two Chinese Boys
• Brad Paisley Online

among others, this one in particular was a lot of fun & relevant to the topic :)

RockYou Raises $35M from Doll Capital

Congrats to Lance, Jia, & the RockYou team on raising a $35M Series C round from DCM (formerly Doll Capital).

Don't spend it all in one place guys... unless of course, that place is the next Graphing Social Patterns conference... cough, cough ;)

Ro Choy from RockYou will be speaking at GSP East this week in DC.