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Thursday, July 24, 2008



Great post, good to see someone looking at the big picture of what FB is trying to accomplish over the next ten years instead of calling it a "big snooze" just because they haven't switched focus to some shiny thing that tech bloggers can chew on for a few days.

Brian Robinson

Regarding #3, wasn't that attempted once with Beacon? People were very put off by privacy concerns as I recall. That was seemingly poor implementation though; it was deployed as an opt-out service instead of opt-in.

I think the question/response model has merit, as pointed out by Edwin in a prior comment. However, in my opinion, social payment will thrive on what people can buy for others through social networks and what people can buy together for events (such as tickets) through those networks.

I think Facebook and Myspace will be big players in this area do to their large user bases, but ultimately the whole web will become social, and a more open standard of identity will prevail (i.e. OpenID over Facebook Connect) because people won't want to be locked in.

One thing is for certain though: it will be very interesting to watch it all unfold.

dave mcclure

Edwin: my wife is a member of PAMP, so i'm very familiar with the example you mention. in fact, i think PAMP could be an excellent example of a place where social discovery of past transactional behavior could be quite helpful.

while i'm not saying "ask" is a bad model either, it requires synchronous behavior between multiple parties.

"discover" is an asynchronous model that doesn't require multi-party back & forth. and with aggregation, it would be very easy to discover that many new parents are buyers of certain Fisher-Price toys and/or Leapfrog Learning systems (yes, we've bought lots of both).

anyway, thanks for the comment & ideas :)

Edwin Khodabakchian

Great post! The next couple of years are definitely going to be interesting.

Regarding #3, you might want to take a look at the Palo Alto and Menlo Park Mother's club. It is a Yahoo Group with 2000 moms. The amount of recommendations flowing through that group is pretty amazing. For example, if you are looking at buying a car or hire a gardener, post a question and you will get in less than 24 hours 10+ qualified recommendations. Based on that, many be the pattern will not be "discover" but simply ask and get a response. Facebook (and/or twitter) could create an application which would streamline the process of asking, collecting and pruning recommendations and I think create a really interesting advertisement space. Yahoo groups is going that direction through the addition of product reviews. The benefit of the ask-response model is that it is engaging, the results are always fresh and people do not get the impression that someone is spying on them.

Do you have any insight as to why the discovery model would be better than the ask model?


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