Master of 500 Hats

Bernard Lunn: Microsoft=Ali, Google=Foreman, & "Web 3.0" = "Rumble in the Jungle" (i'll let him explain)

Bernard Lunn has just finished writing a pretty amazing 3-part tour-de-force on the coming Internet "post-recession phase transition". and guess what -- the resulting big winner is probably NOT Microsoft, NOT Google, but rather The Little Guy!

(yay! that's me :)

Bernard's 3-part set of posts are here:

1. The Whatchamacallit, Post Recession Phase Transition
2. The Emerging Main Street Web
3. Dancing With Gorillas: The New Web Era

The articles are long, but they're good... they also reference several other amazing posts too.  well ok, several amazing posts, and my amazingly insane Google vs Microsoft rant about Web 3.0 = Hailstorm 2.0 (only amazing thing in my post was the choice of font sizes & colors... yes, i know... i'm working on a custom font called "Kidnap Ransom Note Helvetica", coming real soon).  along with my tinfoil helmet piece, he references another truly amazing look-forward post by Paul Ford (written back in 2002, altho presented as future history in 2009) called How Google beat Amazon and Ebay to the Semantic Web. 

i remember reading that humdinger back during the recession, and just being floored by the vision.  there was also a followup animation called Epic 2014 that chronicles the rise of "GoogleZon" (= Google + Amazon), similarly visionary.  after reading Bernard's articles, i'm realizing again how incredible those 2 pieces were, especially since they were written 4 & 6 years ago.  the Epic 2014 flash animation is re-posted below... it's almost comedically conspiracy-minded, but if you take a step back you have to be impressed with how close to on-target the vision is... in fact, it's not even out of bounds to say the prediction of a Google-Amazon merger could conceivably still happen (or Microsoft-Amazon, or Microsoft-Ebay, or Google-eBay, etc etc).

anyway, i think Bernard's overall summary blog trilogy is a relatively good & mostly sane analysis of where we're headed in the next 2-3 years, and it's probably less crazy than my own version. 

again, i highly recommend checking his stuff out... it's excellent.

btw, just have to give extra props to Bernard for the visual imagery re: Microsoft = aging champion boxer Muhammad Ali duking it out with Google = young George Foreman, aka the Rumble in the Jungle -- classic Ali-Foreman fight in Zaire, basis for the documentary When We Were Kings.  that is SO on target.

the analogy fits perfectly... except that Ali won that fight, and i'm not sure whether Microsoft will win this one. regardless, as Bernard points out, the real winner is you & me, Joe Six-Pack Web Consumer. 

that's right... you read it here first.

Web 3.0 = great taste AND less filling.

Iron Mike Tells Stan Lee to Fuck Off... Marvel Lawyers either Stupid or Brilliant. (or Mike = Super Genius)

Un. Be. lievable.

Act I: "Iron Mike" Arrington rents out SF Metreon AMC Theater for private TechCrunch screening of Iron Man for ~500-600 geek / comic fanboys, subsidizes costs so it's only $1 for the Tony Stark faithful to attend (fyi, TC works with AMC & Paramount to buy the tickets legit, so all on the up & up).

Act II: yours truly & others buy up tickets in a matter of hours. w00t ^2!  'nuff said.

Act III: the suits get wind of it, Marvel attorneys -- as in "it's a marvel you're actually an attorney" -- send Iron Mike a Cease & Desist letter.  Mike and the rest of us can't believe how fucking stupid these idiots are.  he checks with AMC/Metreon, and they're standing firm behind Techcrunch (for the moment, anyway).  as of now, the show is still going on.

Act IV: waiting for tomorrow to see WTF happens here... i'm double-booked anyway, but i wouldn't miss this comicbook geekfest shitstorm for all the rice in china.

Iron Man Exclusive Trailer

interpretation #1 via Occam's Razor: these guys are incredibly stupid, and just crapped the bed all over the best possible fan marketing you can get -- that is, user-generated buzz @ full retail markup (albeit subsidized by TechCrunch, but box office still gets paid regardless).  now awaiting most negative fanboy reaction if they continue to send in the clowns (= attorneys).  death by a thousand paper cuts / long tail blog posts awaits ye, Stan Lee!

interpretation #2 via Conspiracy Theory A: these guys are incredibly smart, and are stirring up shit with Arrington knowing full well they'll get massive geekster backlash, which will create even MORE fan buzz / press awareness, which will drive even more sales.  sounds like a truly ingenious & great negative-spin-equals-positive-ROI PR story, but i just don't buy Teh Sharks in Teh Suits are that smart.  if so, then i'm really impressed.  we have all been played, and i mean like a friggin' Stradivarius by Itzhak Perlman.

interpretation #3 via Conspiracy Theory B: the double conspiracy -- a riddle, wrapped in a mystery,  inside an enigma -- this entire charade is being manufactured by Arrington to drive even more attention to TechCrunch.  let's see here: find geek movie, discover legal loophole, rent out movie theater, let slip to Marvel attorneys there's some unauthorized use of movie & see if they take the bait... BINGO! dem Sharks, dey Bite!  now wait for C&D, re-publish on TC as soon as it's received,  and BLAMMO! 

instant BitchMeme-bait.  absolute genius. 

& in this case i DO think Mike could be this smart... still, sounds a bit complicated even for Mr. Arrington. 

but then again: is he Iron Mike, or Mike Hulk?

don't make Mike angry.  you wouldn't like him when he's angry. 

TechCrunch SMASH!

Startup Metrics 101: a Product & Marketing Workshop (@ Web 2.0 Expo SF 2008)

Here's the Startup Metrics 101 presentation Hiten Shah & I are giving at our Startup Metrics 101 workshop  at Web 2.0 Expo SF this afternoon:

| View | Upload your own

UPDATE: some terrific followup commentary on Startup Metrics from Andrew Chen, who is a bonafide Wile E Coyote SUPER GENIUS, and who came up with a lot of ideas Hiten & I stole from liberally for our presentation ;)

Note: we appreciate any comments or suggestions you have, and in particular please feel free to make comments below about any additional tools & resources of note we should include for Acquisition, Activation, Retention, Referral, and Revenue.  AARRR!

Web 2.0 Expo SF: Series of Tubes + Startup Metrics 101

Starting tomorrow, i'm helping organize the biggest geekapalooza north of SXSW: Web 2.0 Expo runs all week in San Francisco. 

along with Brady Forrest & Jen Pahlka, i'm co-chairing the largest gathering of nerds in the free world (disneyland for nerds, some might even say :)

For the past six months, we've been working hard to put together over 100+ sessions and 200+ speakers on topics such as:

• Strategy & Business Models
• Marketing & Community
• Design & User Experience
• Web 2.0 Fundamentals
• Web 2.0 Development
• The Mobile Web
• Web Operations
• Social Networks & Platforms

If you're in town this week, i hope you'll stop by & check it out.

I'll also be giving a Startup Metrics 101 workshop tomorrow with Hiten Shah & Vanessa Fox.  If you're trying to figure out what your startup should be focused on & how to measure it, drop by and find out.  At the end of the workshop we'll do a few Extreme Startup Makeovers for any brave souls willing to subject their websites to public review & commentary (promise we'll play nice ;)

So hurry up & get those tubes humming!

Google Q1 2008 Earnings: "Comscore, Eat My Shorts."

All is well in the valley again: Google returns to kicking much hiney.

(& in particular, Comscore has Eric Schmidt's foot tightly secured up its arse)

| View | Upload your own

Google sez: I'm STILL the JUGGERNAUT, BITCH! (courtesy of web analytics + Google Website Optimizer)

I've written before that while most people realize how dominant Google is in search, they don't realize how dominant Google is in web analytics. and imho, even fewer people understand why Google is placing such a huge bet on analytics (& checkout, & a/b testing), which i believe is required in order for them to pave the way for future growth in CPA-based advertising. 

yep, they're still The Juggernaut, bee-atch!

side note: many folks may be aware that one of the more notable transitions that occurred during the end of the last dot com bubble / recession of 2000-2004 was the dropoff in CPM-based advertising (Yahoo & AOL) and the simultaneous birth / growth of CPC-based advertising (Google & Overture->Yahoo).  this isn't really that surprising, since during tough times there will always be a flight to quality / lower risk, and qualified clicks (CPC) are certainly lower-risk / higher-quality than impressions (CPM).

looking forward, while i don't quite agree with folks who think another internet recession is looming, i would observe that any such pullback will likely create a new & further flight to quality, which i believe could spur further growth in CPA-based advertising (which typically results in a specific conversion and/or transaction).  in other words, CPC (clicks) is better than CPM (impressions), and CPA (actions or transactions) is better than CPC. 

with impression-based advertising, i hope some % of users who see an ad click on it, go to a website, and convert to an action or sale.  with click-based advertising, i know how many people click thru to the site, but i still don't know how many convert to an action or sale.  but with CPA, i only pay for the specific conversions, actions, or transactions that actually happen.  wotta deal!

This inexorable, incremental advertising [r]evolution is illustrated below:

now if you believe this analysis, you might suggest companies that control point of sale / transaction & conversion data are well-positioned to take advantage of this potential next wave of advertising... and you would be half-right, in that companies like eBay & Amazon (& actually also Yahoo Stores, Craigslist, & several other e-commerce sites) know exactly when sales occur, and could possibly setup a way to allocate & charge for advertising based on the potential for leads that actually convert.

however, most e-commerce companies aren't adept at offering "turn-on-the-faucet" advertising solutions that drive more users to their listings or eBay storefronts at the drop of the hat.  furthermore, i don't think they're well-prepared to gather data via web analytics to see which merchants they should be sending the best traffic to (just give me the GOOD leads, murray!).  this is kind of curious, since theoretically they have all the data they need to make it happen.  but so far, Google has been eating their lunch WITHOUT having hardly any point-of-sale transaction data (albeit with the modest success of Google Checkout they now have a little, and with Google Analytics they are gathering quite a bit).

still, all of this conjecture is moot without a strong ability to understand user behavior on websites prior to actions or transactions occurring.  and to date, Google Analytics -- like most analytics tools -- has not been very decision-oriented.  that is, the output of most web analytics tools do not drive towards making a decision... they simply sit there & look pretty.  great if you're sending a report to your boss, but kinda crappy if you're trying to figure out what features & marketing actually drive better performance.

Google Website Optimizer (multivariate testing / landing page optimization) is an absolutely critical piece of the web analytics / CPA puzzle that *does* provide exactly that type of feedback.  it allows you to conduct a series of experiments that combine various copy & graphics, and select the combination(s) that work best. 

as of yesterday, it's now available to anyone, on any website, free of charge.

wake up folks: time to smell the coffee.

and start COOKING... with GAS.

Buddy Media raises $6.5M, launches "app" network... SGN buying spree battles Zynga for King of Social Games

No deep analysis on these recent news items, but noting for the record that Facebook & related social network platform sub-economies are still as hot as ever.

Congrats to Mike Lazerow & Buddy Media on raising $6.5M of fresh powder, and on launching the Buddy Media Ad Network.  Along with SocialMedia, VideoEgg, RockYou, Lookery, & others running ad networks to monetize Facebook apps, there appears to be no slowdown in social network "app-vertising", a topic we plan to discuss in depth at Graphing Social Patterns East in DC this June.

also Congrats to Shervin Pishevar & Social Gaming Network on recently going all-in & buying up several independent apps / developers, to compete with Mark Pincus & Zynga for the title of King of the Hill of Social Games.  Mark & Shervin were highlighted as frienemies not too long ago when Zynga & SGN were duking it out in the comments of 2 recent TechCrunch posts on social gaming.

(much like the competitive jousting between Max Levchin, Slide & Lance Tokuda, RockYou over the past year, Shervin & Mark are another pair of smart & competitive geeks against whom i wouldn't want to play poker -- or Texas Hold 'em, as the case may be).

(chart shown from Adonomics leaderboard, by way of VentureBeat)
 

Shervin & Mark were terrific speakers at the session on Social Games moderated by Jeremy Liew at Graphing Social Patterns West last month in San Diego, and they're speaking again at an upcoming one-day Social Gaming Summit conference run by my friend Charles Hudson at Gaia Online.

needless to say, the hits just keep on coming... who can keep up with it all ?!?

GoogleApps / Google App Engine: a year late? still impressive shit.

  GoogleApps / Google App Engine 
  Originally uploaded by davemc500hats

Google App Engine just launched.

would have been more impressive if Google had rolled this out a year or two ago, before Amazon Web Services & Facebook Platform & other web app environments like Bungee Labs & AppJet... but still, this is pretty darn cool.

applause, applause :)

Facebook: Hey! i Can Haz yr Links n my Chat!

  Facebook: Hey!  i Can Haz Yr Links n my Chat! 
  Originally uploaded by davemc500hats

New & Improved: It's Facebook Chat

(extra cool: now with shared links from my Feed too -- that's pretty frakkin' sweet -- but i want the visual image embeds too ;)

RockBand @ SXSW 2008

  RockBand @ SXSW 2008 
  Originally uploaded by davemc500hats

this is a bit late, but while we're on the subject of wacky videos, here was the RockBand (MockBand?) video we put together for the ROCK party @ SXSW 2008.

kudos to Randi Jayne for producing; Revision3 & WashingtonVC for sponsoring; Robert Scoble, Jay Adelson, David Spark, Rana Sobhany, Neha Tiwari for participating in the madness.

good times, good times :)