Bernard Lunn has just finished writing a pretty amazing 3-part tour-de-force on the coming Internet "post-recession phase transition". and guess what -- the resulting big winner is probably NOT Microsoft, NOT Google, but rather The Little Guy!
(yay! that's me :)
Bernard's 3-part set of posts are here:
- The Whatchamacallit, Post Recession Phase Transition
- The Emerging Main Street Web
- Dancing With Gorillas: The New Web Era
The articles are long, but they're good... they also reference several other amazing posts too. well ok, several amazing posts, and my amazingly insane Google vs Microsoft rant about Web 3.0 = Hailstorm 2.0 (only amazing thing in my post was the choice of font sizes & colors... yes, i know... i'm working on a custom font called "Kidnap Ransom Note Helvetica", coming real soon). along with my tinfoil helmet piece, he references another truly amazing look-forward post by Paul Ford (written back in 2002, altho presented as future history in 2009) called How Google beat Amazon and Ebay to the Semantic Web.
i remember reading that humdinger back during the recession, and just being floored by the vision. there was also a followup animation called Epic 2014 that chronicles the rise of "GoogleZon" (= Google + Amazon), similarly visionary. after reading Bernard's articles, i'm realizing again how incredible those 2 pieces were, especially since they were written 4 & 6 years ago. the Epic 2014 flash animation is re-posted below... it's almost comedically conspiracy-minded, but if you take a step back you have to be impressed with how close to on-target the vision is... in fact, it's not even out of bounds to say the prediction of a Google-Amazon merger could conceivably still happen (or Microsoft-Amazon, or Microsoft-Ebay, or Google-eBay, etc etc).
anyway, i think Bernard's overall summary blog trilogy is a relatively good & mostly sane analysis of where we're headed in the next 2-3 years, and it's probably less crazy than my own version.
again, i highly recommend checking his stuff out... it's excellent.
btw, just have to give extra props to Bernard for the visual imagery re: Microsoft = aging champion boxer Muhammad Ali duking it out with Google = young George Foreman, aka the Rumble in the Jungle -- classic Ali-Foreman fight in Zaire, basis for the documentary When We Were Kings. that is SO on target.
the analogy fits perfectly... except that Ali won that fight, and i'm not sure whether Microsoft will win this one. regardless, as Bernard points out, the real winner is you & me, Joe Six-Pack Web Consumer.
that's right... you read it here first.
Web 3.0 = great taste AND less filling.