seriously Josh... wtf are you smoking lately?
The market is fickle, something better is in the wings, and as soon as it arrives, the alienated and angry mob will race to it.
methinks the reports of Facebook's untimely death are a bit exaggerated.
let's review the upside on Facebook:
- 50M+ users
- half of them login daily
- growing ~100% every 6-9 months
- $300M in fresh capital
- probably running break-even or slightly profitable
- innovations in Platform, APIs, Apps, News Feed
- FB app developers going gonzo building new stuff
- everyone else chasing those developments
and the downside:
- long-term monetization still unproven
- upcoming competition from OpenSocial et al
- tougher to justify new hire stock options with a $15B valuation
- Beacon rollout pretty much DOA, at least from PR perspective
if i do the Ben Franklin math on this story, still smells like a pretty damn good bet to me.
hey Josh: let's come back & take a look at your column in 12 months, and see where things stand.
in the meantime... if Mark Zuckerberg wants to trade places with any of us mere mortals, sign me up.
for a $15B valuation and $300M in cash, i can deal with a shitload of tomatoes.