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Thursday, November 01, 2007

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dave mcclure

@Trey/noodle: certainly it's a different story for the world outside the US, and i did acknowledge that in my post above. however at least in English-speaking countries, aside from Bebo -- who also was not in the Open Social announcement, yes? -- i think the story is still dominated by FB & MySpace. you can accuse me of over-focusing on US & English-speaking markets, however at the moment that's where many people are looking for monetization. actually, i'm a big fan of other intl market opportunities too, particularly fast-growth areas like China, India, Brazil, & other asian markets... but those might be a little further out on the horizon.

@noodle: you're misinterpreting my remarks, and what i was saying about the data. i know/knew RockYou & Slide were in the partnership, but not listed in Tancer's graph -- what i was saying was that theoretically they might increase the Open Social #'s, however it's not clear their users/usage should be counted against FB or MySpace since much of their activity is on those 2 platforms (currently). still i'm quite aware both companies are actively working on other platforms and Open Social partners -- they're agnostic, and will go where there's opportunity. (and fyi, both were at the Graphing Social Patterns conference i put together, and both have been helping / supporting with the class i teach at Stanford). as i noted above, if you watch where Slide & RockYou choose to spend time, i think you'll end up understanding what's going on with the rest of the market. if they're still spending lots of resources on OpenSocial stuff in 6 months, then Google will have won a seat at the table.

@charles: right on the money.

Charles Hudson

Nice analysis, Dave - I agree with you. I also think it's silly to point to the fact that RockYou and Slide are launch partners as validation - they are in the distribution business and would be crazy not to take advantage of any opportunity to distribute their wares.

This is an interesting first step but I'll reserve my excitement for the first set of applications built on top of this that really are amazing and awe-inspiring.

noodle

Dave

You got a couple of things wrong here. First, both RockYou and Slide are launch partners. They have also been working with hi5 and Friendster (which are both OpenSocial partners) for a while now. RockYou is launching multiple apps in Orkut. Both Slide and RockYou already have over 10 apps in hi5.

Second, instead of looking at HitWise chart thats US only, you might want to look at quantcast or comscore. For ex, here's data on hi5 - http://www.quantcast.com/hi5.com. Here hi5 has 10% of their users as addicts while its 14% for FB (users who log in 30 or more times each month). Also, on a per session basis hi5 users spend more time and consume more pages than FB's (according to comscore). The usage days for FB is definitely higher than hi5, Ning, Friendster. But they are all increasing month over month faster than FB's number.

Look deeper into the data, FB fanboy!

Trey Philips

Don't forget that AOL has AIM Pages, Yahoo has Mash, and Microsoft... well... I think I heard something about them and a social network recently. It's not that they haven't launched/bought/done anything, but simply that they haven't been successful (except, arguably, Microsoft).

Also, I've gotta ask why you (and so many others) are strictly using US data (on Hitwise). There is a world outside of the US, and it even includes English speaking countries such as Canada and England!

You're really correct about YouTube and Gmail, though.

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